Thanks to embarrassing lobbying from manager Sir Alex Ferguson and the triumph of sentimentality over objective analysis, Ryan Giggs has been named the PFA Player of the Year. No doubt, Giggs is one of the best players ever in the Premier League and his career performance is worthy of praise. But there is no way he has been the best player over the past year. In fact, he hasn't even been a regular starter for Manchester United. He's played in 24 of United's 32 league games, scoring only a single goal. When you compare the performances of Ryan Giggs and Chelsea's Frank Lampard, there is no possible way to conclude that Giggs has been the better player this year. Consider the following stats:

Goals
12 - Lampard
1 - Giggs

 

Assists
9 - Lampard
7 - Giggs

 

Shots on Target
54 - Lampard
8 - Giggs

 

Corners Won
40 - Lampard
12 - Giggs

 

Fouls Won
36 - Lampard
13 - Giggs

 

Tackles Won
40 - Lampard
22 - Giggs

 

Passes Intercepted
30 - Lampard
22 - Giggs

 

Shots Blocked
9 - Lampard
0 - Giggs

 

In every statistical category, Lampard leads Giggs, and by a considerable margin in most categories. Furthermore, Lampard has played in virtually all of Chelsea's games and has been their most important player. You could argue that Giggs isn't even the most valuable player on his own team. Cristiano Ronaldo, Nemanja Vidic, Rio Ferdinand, and Wayne Rooney have all contributed more to United's success than Giggs.

 

Another indicator of a player's overall performance from a statistical point of view is the Actim Index Score. This stat provides the most complete statistical rating of a player. Frank Lampard leads all Premier League footballers with a score of 622. That's # 1 in the league. Ryan Giggs isn't even in the top 100. Giggs currently has fewer points than the 279 recorded by Jason Roberts, who is # 100 on the list. All of the other Manchester United players nominated for the award came in higher than Giggs.

Actim Index Score
622 - Lampard
452 - Gerrard
447 - Ronaldo
423 - Vidic
399 - van der Sar
330 - Rio Ferdinand

 

If you don't trust the Actim Index, then how about the point system my fantasy football league uses. Let's look at the points for each of the players:

 

467.00 - Lampard
144.50 - Giggs

 

What is truly unbelievable is that Frank Lampard not only did not win the PFA Player of the Year award, he didn't even make the Premier League team of the year:

 

Edwin Van der Sar (Manchester United), Glen Johnson (Portsmouth), Rio Ferdinand (Manchester United), Nemanja Vidic (Manchester United), Patrice Evra (Manchester United), Ashley Young (Aston Villa), Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Ryan Giggs (Manchester United), Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United), Nicolas Anelka (Chelsea), Fernando Torres (Liverpool)

 

Look how many United players made the list. Yet they are only six points ahead of Chelsea in the league. And with so many players making the list, no one player has had to carry the load for them. For Chelsea however, Didier Drogba was nearly non-existent during the first half of the season when Scolari was manager; Joe Cole is out injured for the season, and Michael Essien is just now back from injury, meaning Chelsea has had to depend even more on Lampard throughout the year. And he has delivered big time, scoring crucial goals with regularity and contributing pin point passes, even long-range efforts, to set up his teammates.

 

For me, there is no doubt that Frank Lampard has been the player of the year. You could make an argument for Ronaldo or Gerrard or Vidic or Ferdinand, but there is absolutely no rational argument to be made in favor of Ryan Giggs. Yes, it's great that he's having a solid season late in his career, and yes he has played at a high level for more years than most. But the PFA award is not a lifetime achievement award. It's the award for the best player of the year. For me, that's Frank Lampard. Ryan Giggs should not even be in the conversation.

 

Giggs winning the award is like Paul Newman winning an Academy Award for Color of Money or Jack Palace winning for City Slickers. It's a sympathy vote. Yes, Giggs probably should have won the award at some time in his career, just like Palace and Newman probably should have won an Oscar at some time. But not this year. His performance simply does not rate as the best player of the year. It's not justice.

 

The following players have had years similar to if not better than Giggs, and no one would even consider giving them the award this year:

 

Danny Murphy, Fulham
Dirk Kuyt, Liverpool
Jolean Lescott, Everton
Phil Jagielka, Everton
Kevin Davies, Bolton
John Pantsil, Fulham
Marouane Fellaini, Everton
Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa
Stephen Ireland, Man City
Tim Cahill, Everton
Matthew Taylor, Bolton
Glen Johnson, Portsmouth
Rory Delap, Stoke
Salomon Kalou, Chelsea
Emile Heskey, Wigan/Aston Villa
Ashley Young, Aston Villa
Chris Brunt, West Brom
Aaron Lennon, Spurs
Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea

 

And that's just to name a few. The PFA should be ashamed that they gave the award to Giggs. You could even argue that Titus Bramble has had a better season than Ryan Giggs. That says it all.

 

Let's look at that comparison a bit more:

Goals
1 - Bramble
1 - Giggs

 

Assists
7 - Giggs
1 - Bramble

 

Shots on Target
8 - Giggs
4 - Bramble

 

Corners Won
12 - Giggs
7 - Bramble

 

Fouls Won
18 - Bramble
13 - Giggs

 

Tackles Won
47 - Bramble
22 - Giggs

 

Passes Intercepted
59 - Bramble
22 - Giggs

 

Shots Blocked
25 - Bramble
0 - Giggs

 

Actim Score (rank)
300 - Bramble (85)
???? - Giggs (outside top 100)

 

Fantasy Points
165.0 - Bramble
144.5 - Giggs

 

So there you have it. Titus Bramble is more deserving of the PFA Player of the Year than Ryan Giggs. Anyone besides Sir Alex still willing to argue for Giggs?

 

Here is the list of the top goal scorers in the English Premier League from the 2004-05 season to the present:

 

G - Player
77 - Cristiano Ronaldo
62 - Frank Lampard
62 - Wayne Rooney
62 - Thierry Henry
61 - Robbie Keane
57 - Aiyegbeni Yakubu
54 - Didier Drogba
53 - Jermain Defoe
48 - Steven Gerrard
47 - Darren Bent
46 - Emmanuel Adebayor
44 - Nicolas Anelka
44 - Peter Crouch
38 - Kevin Davies
37 - Tim Cahill
37 - Robin van Persie

 

Statistics through 15 April 2009.

 

The shortlist for the PFA Player of the Year award was announced today, and somehow Frank Lampard was left off the list. Those in the running for the award are: Steven Gerrard of Liverpool, and Nemanja Vidic, Ryan Giggs, Rio Ferdinand, Cristiano Ronaldo and Edwin van der Sar, all of Manchester United. All of these players have had good seasons, but surely Lampard's season has been just as good, if not better.

 

It's hard to compare Lampard to defenders Vidic and Ferdinand or goalkeeper van der Sar, but let's see how Lampard compares to the other nominees. Lampard has 12 Premier League goals, comparable to Gerrard's 13 and Ronaldo's 15, and well ahead of Giggs' single goal. Lampard is also second in the Premier League with 9 assists, more than any of the other nominees (Gerrard-7, Giggs-7, Ronaldo-5).

 

Furthermore, Lampard has the highest Actim Index Score (a statistic used to measure a player's all around performance) of any player in the Premier League. Here is a list of the Actim Index scores of the nominees:

 

622 - Lampard
452 - Gerrard
447 - Ronaldo
423 - Vidic
399 - van der Sar
330 - Rio Ferdinand

 

Actually, I can't report Giggs' score because he isn't even in the top 100. Ryan Shawcross, Ryan Nelson, and Titus Bramble are ahead of Giggs. I'm sure Ryan Giggs is a sentimental choice because he has been at Manchester United so long, but come on, there is no way that he has been a better player than Frank Lampard this year.

 

If you don't trust the Actim Index, then how about the point system my fantasy football league uses. Let's look at the points for each of the players:

 

448.50 - Lampard
388.00 - Ronaldo
322.50 - Gerrard
246.50 - van der Sar
244.00 - Vidic
157.00 - Ferdinand
132.00 - Giggs

 

From a statistical standpoint, then, Frank Lampard should not only be among the six nominees, he should be the front-runner for the award. Lampard has scored key goals for Chelsea, as evidenced by his two second-half goals in the Champions League against Liverpool. And unlike Ronaldo, Lampard accumulates more of his points from defending rather than drawing fouls. Here's a breakdown of various statistics for the midfielders in contention plus Lampard:

 

Goals
15 - Ronaldo
13 - Gerrard
12 - Lampard

 

Assists
9 - Lampard
7 - Gerrard
7 - Giggs
5 - Ronaldo

 

Shots on Target
54 - Lampard
48 - Ronaldo
33 - Gerrard
8 - Giggs

 

Corners Won
57 - Ronaldo
40 - Lampard
33 - Gerrard
12 - Giggs

 

Fouls Won
69 - Ronaldo (i.e., diving)
36 - Lampard
25 - Gerrard
13 - Giggs

 

Tackles Won
40 - Lampard
34 - Gerrard
22 - Giggs
11 - Ronaldo

 

Passes Intercepted
30 - Lampard
26 - Gerrard
22 - Giggs
15 - Ronaldo

 

Shots Blocked
9 - Lampard
1 - Gerrard
1 - Ronaldo
0 - Giggs

 

Based on the stats, it's hard to argue that Lampard does not deserve to be included at least in the consideration for the PFA Player of the Year Award. I understand that the team that the award usually goes to the team that wins the title, but Manchester United aren't that far ahead of Liverpool or Chelsea. At least Liverpool got one player on the short list. But Ryan Giggs on the list over Frank Lampard is just a joke.

 

A couple weeks ago I heard Sir Alex Ferguson saying Giggs should be the player of the year. so I guess if Sir Alex says it, it has to be so, even if none of the facts would support it. But don't worry, Soccerword hands out a player of the year award every season, and I don't limit the nominees to a short list while the season is still going on. After the last game is played, soccerword will reveal our player of the year, based on an objective analysis of all the data at hand.

 

Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal are into the Champions League Semi-Finals

Three English clubs - Chelsea, Manchester United, and Arsenal - made it into the semi-finals of the Champions League this week. Manchester United looked vulnerable after drawing the first leg of their quarter-final tie with Porto at Old Trafford. But they squeaked by with a 1-0 win at Porto in the second leg today, thanks largely to a superb, long-range strike from Cristiano Ronaldo. Arsenal were also tied 1-1 after their first leg match with Villareal, but they cruised to a 3-0 win today in the second leg. Congratulations to the Gunners and the Red Devils.

 

But the match of the week, indeed the match of the year, was Tuesday's game between Chelsea and Liverpool at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea were the favorites to advance, having convincingly beaten Liverpool 3-1 at Anfield in the first leg. The Blues chances looked even better when Liverpool captain Steven Gerrard was ruled out due to injury. But Liverpool stormed back in the second leg, thanks in part to a jittery performance from Chelsea keeper Petr Cech. In the 19th minute, Petr Cech assumed Fabio Aurelio's free kick from distance would be a cross to the far post. Cech took a step to his right before realizing that Auerlio was shooting at the near post. It was too late, as a diving Cech could not scramble back across goal, and the ball smashed into the back of the net.

 

Within ten minutes, Liverpool had a penalty kick after Branislav Ivanovic, Chelsea's hero from the first leg, pulled down Xabi Alonso in the box. Alonso converted the spot kick, and suddenly Liverpool were level 3-3 on aggregate. But they needed one more goal to advance as Chelsea had the away goals advantage, 3-2 at that time.

 

Before half time, Chelsea manager Gus Hiddink replaced Salomon Kalou with Nicolas Anelka in an effort to reverse the momentum. After a half time team talk that Hiddink described as "angry," Chelsea responded in the second half. Anelka played the ball into the box with a low cross near the touch line. It should have been easy enough for Liverpool keeper Pepe Reina to handle, but a diving Didier Drogba got a slight touch on the ball, which deflected off Reina and over the line. Five minutes later, Chelsea were given a free kick about ten yards outside the penalty area, and Alex scored with a swerving pile-driver of a kick. And just like that, the Stamford Bridge crowd seemed much more at ease.

 

In the 76th minute, Didier Drogba played the ball to Frank Lampard, who scored from close range, the ball deflecting off Reina and into the net. Now leading 3-2 in the second leg and 6-3 on aggregate, Chelsea were surely through to the semi-finals, weren't they? So it seemed until a deflected shot from Lucas went into the Chelsea goal in the 82nd minute, followed by a headed goal from Dirk Kuyt a minute later. Suddenly, Liverpool led 4-3 and trailed only 5-6 on aggregate. Another late goal would send the Reds through.

 

The Stamford Bridge crowd became nervous once again, especially after Petr Cech looked less and less confident. With Liverpool pressing forward, Chelsea were able to counter-attack, and Lampard once again proved the hero. He took a passjust inside the box and curled a shot off the left post, across the goal, and then off the right post and over the line to seal a spot in the semis. There was still time for Cech to make another error as he was caught out of goal. But Michael Essien was on the line to head away a last minute shot from David N'Gog.

 

Final score: 4-4 (Chelsea advanced 7-5 on aggregate). It wasn't the best played game from a technical standpoint, but defensive errors led to a dramatic game filled with goals. Much different than what we have come to expect from Chelsea and Liverpool in the Champions League. Chelsea's reward - facing Barcelona in the semi-finals. And they will be without left back Ashely Cole who picked up a yellow card against Liverpool. Who will Chelsea select to defend against Lionel Messi? In previous years, they had England's second best left back, Wayne Bridge, to fill in, but Bridge is now at Manchester City. That means that former Barcelona player Juliano Belletti will probably get the call. Ironic, as Belletti scored the goal that won the Champions League final for Barcelona against Arsenal.

 

Note: on a more serious note, today marks the 20th anniversary of the Hillsborough disaster that claimed the lives of 96 Liverpool fans. Our thoughts are with their families and friends today. You'll never walk alone!

 

The BBC has full coverage of the memorial service held today at Anfield:

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/merseyside/7999279.stm

 

Lower GBS% is Better

 

It won't come as a big surprise that the teams near the top of the Premier League table score more goals than the clubs in the bottom half, but a closer look at the statistics may reveal why. The clubs that are at or near the top of the league rely less on strikers for their goals than the clubs near the bottom. The table below shows the number of league goals each team has scored, followed by the number of Goals Scored by Strikers (GBS), and then the Percentage of the club's Goals Scored by Strikers (GBS%).

 

Team - G - GBS (GBS%)
1. Man United 49 - 20 (41%)
2. Liverpool 54 - 23 (43%)
3. Chelsea 49 - 21 (43%)
4. Arsenal 48 - 24 (50%)
5. Aston Villa 43 - 19 (44%)
6. Everton 40 - 12 (30%)
7. Wigan 30 - 16 (53%)
8. West Ham 35 - 20 (57%)
9. Fulham 30 - 17 (57%)
10. Man City 46 - 20 (43%)
11. Spurs 36 - 18 (50%)
12. Bolton 32 - 16 (50%)
13. Hull 35 - 20 (57%)
14. Sunderland 29 - 19 (66%)
15. Pompey 32 - 21 (66%)
16. Stoke 29 - 15 (52%)
17. Blackburn 33 - 20 (61%)
18. Newcastle 36 - 23 (64%)
19. Middlesboro 21 - 16 (76%)
20. West Brom 26 - 11 (42%)

 

The relationship between league rank and % of goals scored by strikers (GBS%) is stark. None of the top six clubs rely on strikers for more than 50% of their goals. They are getting significant goal scoring contribution from their midfielders and even defenders. By contrast, at least 50% of the goals scored by clubs in the bottom half were scored by strikers. And with the exception of West Brom, the percentage gets higher as you go further down the table. West Brom is an exception for two reasons. One, they just haven't scored that many goals, and two, they more than any other club, lack a proven goal-scorer up front. Everton is also a bit of an aberration because of the number of games missed by injured strikers. Thus their GBS% (30%) is unusually low.

 

What this suggests is that having more attacking options, beyond the one or two strikers up front, is key to success. The correlation between the percentage of goals scored by non-strikers and league table position is 0.62, a very strong positive relationship, nearly as strong as the correlation between total goals scored and league position (0.81).

 

And it gets more interesting when you look at the leading goal scorer by a non-striker for each club. The table below shows the number of goals scored by the leading midfielder/defender for each club.

 

1. Man United - Ronaldo 13
2. Liverpool - Gerrard 13
3. Chelsea - Lampard 10
4. Arsenal - Nasri 6
5. Aston Villa - Young 5
6. Everton - Cahill 7
7. Wigan - Valencia 3
8. West Ham - Collison/Noble 3
9. Fulham - Murphy 4
10. Man City - Ireland 7
11. Spurs - Lennon 5
12. Bolton - Taylor 8
13. Hull - Turner 4
14. Sunderland - Richardson 3
15. Pompey - Johnson 3
16. Stoke - Shawcross 3
17. Blackburn - Warnock 3
18. Newcastle - Taylor/Duff 3
19. Middlesboro - O'Neil 2
20. West Brom - Brunt 4

 

Again, the relationship is clear. Clubs near the top have a midfielder or defender who pitches in with goals; clubs near the bottom do not. Only three clubs have a midfielder who has scored in the double digits in league play, and it's the top three: Ronaldo with 13 for Man United, Gerrard with 13 for Liverpool, and Lampard with 10 for Chelsea.

 

The average number of goals scored by the top non-striker for the top six clubs is 9. For the bottom 14, the average is 3.9 and for the bottom seven it's 3.0. In fact, the correlation between number of goals from leading non-striker goal scorer and league position is 0.73, again a strong positive relationship.

 

It's obvious that scoring more goals should lead to greater league success, but these statistics show that the way to score more goals is to have a well rounded attack with legitimate goal-scoring options from the midfield. An over-reliance on goals from strikers may allow the opposing team to clamp down on the strikers and thus remove the main or only goal-scoring option.

 

It should be noted that strong correlations do not prove causation. The role of the striker is certainly important. The striker goal percentages of the best clubs are in the 40% range compared to the 60-70% range for the bottom clubs, so it's not like the top clubs don't get goals from strikers. Also, there aren't that many Lampards, Gerrards, or Ronaldos out there. But if your club has a chance to get a goal-scoring midfielder, snap him up ASAP. The importance of such a player is illustrated by the absence of the injured Cesc Fabregas for Arsenal this season. If he had been healthy, Arsenal's GBS% would surely be lower than 50%.

 

The bottom line: Lower GBS% = Higher League Position.

 

Note: statistics are based on Premier League games during the 2008-09 season as of 1 April 2009.